Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Recession? What recession? There is no recession for the Politicians...



It’s no wonder why politics attracts so many people.... definitely there is an urge to do something for society, but in the process they do a lot for themselves!! Though the picture is same everywhere, but here would like to delve into the facts and figures from US. 

Case in point is US Congressmen and Senators. When a Representative (name with-held) was first elected to Congress two decades ago, he was comfortably ensconced in the middle class. Mr. Representative, held $100,000 or so in savings accounts in the mid-1990s and had a retirement pension, but like many Americans, he also owed the banks nearly as much in loans.

Today, Mr. Representative, a miner’s son and a former high school teacher, is a member of a not-so-exclusive club: Capitol Hill millionaires. That group has grown in recent years to include nearly half of all members of Congress — 250 in all — and the wealth gap between lawmakers and their constituents appears to be growing quickly, even as Congress debates unemployment benefits, possible cuts in food stamps and a “millionaire’s tax.”

Mr. Representative buys a Powerball lottery ticket every weekend and says he does not consider himself rich. Indeed, within the halls of Congress, where the median net worth is $913,000 and climbing, he is not. He is a rank-and-file millionaire. But compared with the country at large, where the median net worth is $100,000 and has dropped significantly since 2004, he and most of his fellow lawmakers are true aristocrats. Just to give a sense of the scale of wealth I am talking about, its in millions of dollars. Congressmen need to disclose their wealth in broad range and many of them have disclosed it in range as wide as $150mn -$700 mn!!!

Largely insulated from the country’s economic downturn since 2008, members of Congress — many of them among the “1 percenters” denounced by Occupy Wall Street protesters — have gotten much richer even as most of the country has become much poorer in the last six years, according to an analysis by The New York Times based on data from the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit research group.

Politics has always been patronized by the wealthy. US Congress has never been a place for paupers either. From plantation owners in the pre-Civil War era to industrialists in the early 1900s to ex-Wall Street financiers and Internet executives today, it has long been populated with the rich, including scions of families like the Guggenheims, Hearsts, Kennedys and Rockefellers.

But rarely has the divide appeared so wide, or the public contrast so stark, between lawmakers and those they represent. When the times are good, the common man would largely not notice such differences in wealth. But with the current economic turmoil that has awaken the people, the difference are too stark to go unnoticed.

There is broad debate about just why the wealth gap appears to be growing. For starters, the prohibitive costs of political campaigning may discourage the less affluent from even considering a candidacy. Beyond that, loose ethics controls, shrewd stock picks, profitable land deals, favorable tax laws, inheritances and even marriages to wealthy spouses are all cited as possible explanations for the rising fortunes on Capitol Hill. But nevertheless the point remains that our politicians do get richer while they serve the poorer common man; something that cannot be explained by plain economics.  

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

50 experiences to try before you die

A must read and watch by all adventure enthusiasts... Will surely kick up your adrenaline level several notches just by reading it and will definitely inspire you to try a few of them.

http://www.cnngo.com/explorations/play/50-thrilling-experiences-116798

Monday, November 28, 2011

FDI in Retail - A bold move by Indian Government

Overview
In a bold and in all likelihood, a controversial step, the Union Cabinet has finally permitted 51% FDI in Multi-Brand Retail Trade (MBRT) and up to 100% FDI in Single Brand Retail Trade (SBRT) both with Government approval. The existing policy prohibits FDI in MBRT and limited FDI in SBRT to 51%.

The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) had circulated a draft note to seek inter-ministerial and public views on this politically sensitive issue. Some of the key features of the policy liberalization as stated by the government note are as follows:

MBRT - 51% under approval route (prohibited presently)
The proposal for 51% FDI in MBRT has been permitted under Government Approval route with the following riders:
  • Fresh agricultural produce and meat products may be unbranded. The Government has the first right to procure agricultural products. Given that there are significant losses due to poor storage facilities for produce acquired by the Government, this may be a precautionary condition in order to ensure food security;
  • Minimum FDI to be brought in is USD100 million. It is important to note that the period over which this amount is to be brought in has not been specified;
  • At least 50% of the total FDI must be invested in ‘backend infrastructure’
    • The term ‘Back-end infrastructure’ has been defined to include capital expenditure on all activities, excluding that on front-end units; for instance, it will include investment made towards processing, manufacturing, distribution, design improvement, quality control and packaging, amongst others. However, the cost of land and rentals are excluded for this purpose.
    • It is pertinent to note that only capital expenditure (excluding front end) is covered in the definition of ‘back-end infrastructure’ thereby implying that the cost of maintenance of such infrastructure will not be counted towards this limit;
  • At least 30% of the procurement of manufactured and processed products should be sourced from ‘small industries’;
  • The above limits are required to be certified by statutory auditors;
  • Retail stores to be set up only in cities with population of more than 1 million. 53 cities presently qualify out of a total number approximating 8000.

SBRT - 100% under approval route (existing 51% under approval route)
In light of the fact that the total FDI in SBRT since 2006 has not yet touched USD50 million, the existing cap of FDI in SBRT has been enhanced from 51% to 100% under approval route. The relaxation is intended to significantly increase the FDI inflow in SBRT. The conditions attached to SBRT are as follows:
  • Products to be sold should be of a ‘single brand’ only;
  • Products should be sold under the same brand name internationally;
  • ‘Single Brand’ product retailing would cover only those brands which are branded during manufacturing
  • The foreign investor should be an owner of the brand;
  • For FDI beyond 51%, 30% sourcing  would mandatorily have to be done from SMEs/ village and cottage industries artisans and craftsmen.  Other than this rider, the four conditions mentioned above were currently apply to FDI in SBRT.

 Condition of 30% sourcing from small scale sector
  • 30% sourcing is mandatorily required from micro and small enterprises with plant and machinery up to USD1 million (SME).
  • The stated intent of this requirement is to ensure that the Indian SME sector benefits, including artisans, craftsman, handicraft and the cottage industry. Given this intent, it is unclear why sourcing has been permitted from SMEs anywhere in the world and not just in India.
  • This condition is applicable both for MBRT and for SBRT where FDI exceeds 51%.

While the exact impact of the above policy change will take a few years to unfold, the perceived advantages and disadvantages arising from the policy relaxation are expected to be as follows:

Advantages
  • Significant employment generation
  • Efficiency in supply chain coupled with capacity building and induction of modern technology
  • Expected to contain food inflation, at least in the medium term by increasing its supply
  • Will help the sector become more organised
  • Securing remunerative prices for the farmers by ensuring direct procurement of agriculture produce
  • Benefit of lower costs to consumers on account of increased competition

Disadvantages
  • Potential labour displacement
  • Disintegration of established supply chains by establishment of monopoly of global retail
  • Adverse impact on domestic small and unorganised retailers



Friday, November 25, 2011

US Consumerism on Black Friday

The following news report http://www.cnbc.com/id/45428383 on how violence erupted in some stores in US on the occasion of Black Friday shopping day makes one sit back and rethink on US consumerism. 

Should I take this desperation by the citizens of the World's biggest consumer as a sign of Consumer Confidence and rising demand among consumers or does it tell a different story altogether. It could also be that this is a day when retailers pamper consumers with huge discounts and its only on this day that the middle class consumers of US can manage to buy some of these goods which they have been procrastinating for some time in current economic turmoil!!

We all know that jobless rates in US are currently at one of the highest levels in the history of the country in modern times. US has a $ 15 trillion GDP and nearly 55% of that is consumer spending. These very consumers are the ones who are keeping the machines running in far off China and Indonesia and keeping the techie awake in India. What would happen if this massive consumerism gradually declines? 

India and China definitely have 1/3 of the world population, but for them to replace the consumerism of US citizens, its a long way to go. India's GDP is currently $1.6 trillion and consumerism is a small portion of this. To replace the nearly $8 trillion US consumer market from the top spot, is a daunting task. The per capita income of USA is around $46,000. Compare this with the per capita income of China which is at $ 7,500 and India's which is $ 3,400. More importantly the proportion of people who are earning below this national income level is way too high in India and China. The huge disparity in income levels tilts the table all the more. 

So basically it seems the World has to continue to depend on US consumers for a long time till India and China mature enough to shoulder the burden of World Consumerism.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Buffett's Big Move in Shaky Market


It indeed seems, the God of Value investing puts in practice what he preaches unlike most other so-called market experts who make their living out of preaching others about investing. The article summarizes where Warren has been investing amidst all the market turmoil. 


Friday, November 11, 2011

Euro zone loses appetite for Italian Pizza!!


The year 2009-10 gave birth to a new abbreviation which increasingly became more and more important for the World economy. That abbreviation is PIIGS - Portugal Ireland Italy Greece and Spain. A pig is generally considered to be a dirty unwanted animal and so is this PIIGS too.  

While Portugal and Ireland managed to get some bailouts and survive in 2010, Greece which was a bigger mess, does not seem to be all that lucky. The EU, IMF and G-20 has asked the Greek government to adhere to the austerity measures imposed upon it. I don't know whether the austerity measures would have any impact on the finances of the country, but it really did change someone's life - the Greek Prime Minister's, who had to resign under pressure. France and Germany with their heavy exposure in PIIGS, were forced to come to the rescue and also form the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) and convince G-20 and IMF about the bailout needed for Greece. For the time being it seems Greek default has been averted though.

When the world was taking a breather from the Greek drama over the past few weeks, Italian bonds seem to have given a rude awakening to the World at large. Italy is a much bigger economy than Greece and any run on the Italian bonds would be in effect a test for the survival of the entire European Union. France and Germany are not in a position to bailout Italy. I feel Italy may need to exit the Euro zone and revert to its own national currency to resolve its debt crisis, thereby forcing the break-up of the Euro zone.

With yields on its sovereign debt hovering around the 7% mark, market access may become limited for Italy. A forced restructuring of its debt could help solve some of its issues, but it would not address other issues that hamper the Italian economy such as a lack of competitiveness, a large current account deficit and lower gross domestic product. 

Neither the EFSF nor the IMF is in a position to bailout larger economies like Italy. Issuing more bonds in the Euro zone by the EFSF would lead to a larger pandora's box which would create bigger problems in the years to come. Its like a gigantic leveraged CDO being financed by the better performing nations and large emerging economies. Its a recipe that would leave a bad taste in the mouth. 

As I had mentioned in my previous blog why government austerity measures are not a great idea Italy is facing recessionary pressures on account of the cut in government expenditures. This would definitely make the high sovereign debt unsustainable. The only way to avoid a breakup of the Euro zone would be for the European Central Bank to become a lender of last resort, for a fall in the euro's value in line with the dollar and for fiscal stimulus for the "core" euro zone and austerity in the periphery to take place. Till this takes place, it seems Europe's fancy with Italian Pizza is done for the time being!!

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Indian Railways - reminiscent of our past

Few weeks ago I had an opportunity to make a train trip to one of the most beautiful beaches in India. After ruling out lot of options we decided to make the overnight journey by train. I was anxiously looking forward to it as its been nearly thirteen years since I last traveled by The Indian Railways.... over these years as I grew up and graduated, post graduated and got myself more involved in the capital markets, I read a lot of how the dynamic railway ministers like Laloo Prasad Yadav had turned around the Indian Railways for the good. Even Harvard Business School had invited Mr Yadav to give a guest lecture on how he turned around the second largest employer in the World (for those who don't know, Indian Railways is the second largest employer in the World, after Walmart!!!).

But what really prompted me to write here is the fact that nothing seems to have changed in the last 13 years!! Definitely a lot many trains would have been added on newer routes but the quality of service and train journey remains the same. You still see the cockroaches in the cabins, the blankets, pillows and sheets still are not the most hygienic to be used and not to mention the same sorry state of the toilets.

I loved the food that used to be served in the trains in my childhood days as it gave me a feeling of an adventure outing, a change from the healthy home food. The menu hasn't really changed much in these 13 long years!! You still get the cutlet bread with butter and sauce for veggies and omelette bread for the non-veggies. The ubiquitous idli-vada sambhar chutney also has not lost its place from the menu options. The chai-chai-chai monotone immediately takes you back to your childhood days when the sound of bottle opener being swiped on cola bottles used to immediately lighten up the eyes knowing the cola man was coming...

In a way I feel the Railways have definitely preserved our past for the generations to come ahead. In our fast paced life when we don't think of any other option other than taking the flight in order to save time, I think one should make a train trip once in a while to feel the roots and also see the country side of the heartland. But nevertheless I think the government should take up a separate project to modernize the Indian railways. High speed trains like the ones that are a common sight in Europe and even our Asian neighbours of Japan and China should be introduced here. Heritage railways should be preserved separately!!

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Higher taxes for Wealthy Americans


There is news that US President, Barack  Obama would be proposing what is being called as "Buffett Tax" on people earning more than $1 million a year as part of his deficit-cutting recommendations to the US Congress.

The purpose for such a tax is to bring the tax rates of the wealthy Americans in line with that being paid by the middle class Americans.  Warren Buffett had once famously said that he thinks that he, and other super-wealthy Americans, don't pay enough in taxes. He said his tax rate is 17.4% whereas most middle class Americans pay 30% or more in income tax. It’s really an irony that cannot be explained by simple economics!

No wonder Capitalist America took it so long to realize as to who needs to be taxed more and who less. Taxing the rich and leaving a little more extra cash in the hands of the middle class could definitely change the dynamics of local consumption significantly. It’s vanilla economics, that the marginal utility of a few thousand dollars in the hands of a middle class is much more than that in the hand of billionaire!

In his weekly radio address Obama said that Americans need to be ready to "pay their fair share" to narrow the U.S. deficit, previewing his proposals to Congress. Obama has repeatedly argued for the wealthiest Americans to face higher taxes with fewer loopholes and exceptions as part of the effort to ensure the U.S. debt-load remains in control. In addition to floating the idea of more taxes on the rich, he is also expected to propose companies getting some tax breaks.

It’s no wonder that the Republicans, who have raised the volume on Washington's fiscal problems as the November 2012 presidential election nears, see higher taxes on the wealthy as a problem for jobs, given that entrepreneurs and companies would be strongly affected. It’s really an unfair world where the rich would go to any length to arm-twist the government in preserving their wealth whereas the middle class has difficulty in even building a cushion for tough times.  

Why Government austerity measures are not a great idea

The current global crisis has given governments a new weapon to tackle the precarious situation being faced by them - Austerity measures. Financial times lexicon defines Austerity measure as "An official action taken by a government in order to reduce the amount of money that it spends or the amount that people spend". But doesn't classical economics teach us that in order to come out of a recessionary economy there needs to be increased spending and consumption demand in order to stimulate industrial activity?

US President, Barack Obama announced a $ 447 bn package that would create jobs in the economy through infrastructure spending and government spending. This is definitely a step in the right direction, unlike what governments in Europe are resorting to. Cutting down government spending, pensions and salaries would see its repercussions over a longer period of time. It needs no economist to tell you that these activities would lead to lower local consumption, lower industrial activity, more job cuts and the cycle would get more painful with time.   

What really is needed is a change in habits of the people. Though a difficult thing to ask but then difficult times need difficult measures. This change in habits is something that would come with time. The concept of savings and spending within your limits is something the Europeans need to learn from the conservative Asians. Leverage and Debt is the single most important cause of all problems that the world is faced with now. Asians are known to be conservative investors and that has definitely helped them to sail through the current turmoil. Indians in general have a very high savings rate of 33% of their earnings. I think its not asking for too much if one is advised to spend within their limits. 

By austerity measures, governments are punishing the common man for the wrong doing of the politicians and the financial market culprits. People could also vent their anger through protests and strikes like the ones seen in Greece recently. These cannot be suppressed for long and has the power to topple governments. Instead of passing the buck of austerity on the common man in Europe, it is important to bring the bankers and financial engineers under some sort of regulation wherein a check must be kept on the leverage these guys are taking on their banking assets. Greed for higher returns and commissions has rocked the ship earlier and would do so again in future unless there is some check to keep these in limits. Investment bankers and Wall Street bonuses which defy gravity even in recessionary economy is a clear indication that the very systems which run and govern the Zillion Dollar global banking and financial markets have inherent flaws that is working in favour of a few and against the majority.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Air India - a sick unit being kept alive on glucose


Every country has a national airline which projects the image of the country to the rest of the World. Some of the national airlines of the likes of Singapore Airlines, Swiss Air, etc have set benchmarks in customer service and quality of flight experience which many private airlines find it difficult to match up. But when it comes to the national carrier of India, we Indians shy away from even travelling in it, leave alone feeling proud of it. Once Air India and Indian Airlines were the only airlines and we didn't have a choice. Currently Air India and Indian Airlines combine have a market share of meager 15%. I don't think air travel in the country would be impacted if we really close down this ailing airlines. The private players would surely be more than happy to serve a larger customer base.

Both Air India and Indian Airlines have come a long way from their glory days. Now with both of them having merged, the mess this combined entity has got into is even bigger. Thanks to an extremely inefficient and bureaucratic way of running business, the national carrier of India is nothing more than a money guzzler. Never in the last decade or more, have I heard that the airline is not in some financial crunch! The airline made some aggressive purchases of new aircraft running into billions of dollars when it did not even have the capacity to repay any time soon. There has been a stage when the earnings from the running of the airline is just sufficient to pay the interest on the huge debt the airline has on its books. Every now and then the airline faces problem in even paying salaries to its employees.

Over the last 3-4 years, Air India has hired numerous consulting firms to advise them on how to "Turn Around" the sick giant. Interestingly the consulting fees paid by Air India for these assignments ran into several crores of Rupees without any meaningful implementation and impact on the fortunes of the airline. The people at the helm of the carrier seemed the least interested in making the unit profitable because the airline was more profitable for their personal gains. I don't want to delve too much into the personal integrity of anyone because sooner or later I am sure investigations would start into the dealings of the senior management of Air India.

Recently the government approved an additional capital infusion of some Rs 6600 cr! This is just one of the many events when huge cash was dolled out to the airline in the hope that things would turn around. But I feel, this is not an easy job to do as the Airline is run with the mindset of an old bureaucratic system.

I think the airline needs to change its policy of keeping employees till retirement. this builds a lot of complacency in the system. More professional and expert hands are needed to make the airlines competitive. I guess its time the government took a decision that does it really need to keep running a substandard airline because of prestige issues or close it down. If prestige issues really matter, I guess they need to really improve the flight experience and customer service at Air India. For the record, latest report from Aviation sector shows that Air India has the lowest on time flight performance in the entire industry. Whereas Jet Airways leads the pack with 91% on-time flight performance, Air India has the figure at a low 71%!! Analysts said Air India employees were slow in clearing and loading aircraft and conducting passengers to their seat....There is definitely lot of room for improvement and the Airline has a long way to go before it becomes the first choice for travelling within India.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Why gold investment never runs out of fashion


One investment class which has found buyers across all generations and category of people is Gold. Often people ask me whether it’s a good time to buy gold now. There is no definition of “now” as whenever you want to buy gold, it’s a good time. You are buying into an appreciating asset and disregarding the short term price fluctuations in gold, you would never lose money in the metal.
There have been fables and dynasties built on this yellow metal. Gold has attracted the attention of man since the days of the Gold Rush when people risked their lives in the hope of making it big with the discovery of some gold mine. Over the generations, the yellow metal has found a place of eminence among the asset classes on account of its never ending demand. There are some facts which one should know about the metal before they commit there hard earned money on the shiny metal.
Gold is an inert chemical element and is one of the most malleable and ductile metal known. The metal retains its shine and colour even when exposed to air and water and that adds to its value as storehouse of wealth. The supply of gold is limited on earth and unlike fossil fuels, it does not get formed through the chemical reaction of the basic materials (carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and hydrogen). Moreover gold once mined remains above earth in some form or the other…. Jewellery, Gold bars, Coins, industrial machines, etc. Till date around 165,000 tonnes of gold has been mined.
Gold has been widely used throughout the world as a vehicle for monetary exchange, either by issuance and recognition of gold coins or other bare metal quantities, or through gold-convertible paper instruments by establishing gold standards in which the total value of issued money is represented in a store of gold reserves. Gold has been fascinating mankind since ages. Egyptian hieroglyphs from as early as 2600 BC describe gold, which king Tushratta of the Mitanni claimed was "more plentiful than dirt" in Egypt. Gold is mentioned frequently in the Old Testament, starting with Genesis 2:11 (at Havilah) and is included with the gifts of the magi in the first chapters of Matthew New Testament. The Book of Revelation 21:21 describes the city of New Jerusalem as having streets "made of pure gold, clear as crystal".
A recent report ranked the central governments of different countries according to their gold reserves. No wonder, US Govt. topped the list with close to 8900 tonnes of gold reserves. India was ranked 12th on the list, but when it comes to gold consumption, no country can match up to India as far as the demand for gold is concerned. India consumes nearly 25% of the gold produced each year mainly in the form of jewellery. So if we consider both the government reserves and gold in the form of jewellery with the citizens, I am sure India would top the charts comfortably. It goes without saying how Indians have always realized the true value of gold which many countries are now realizing considering the weakness in the dollar which has been the measure of a government’s reserves.
Gold investment worldwide has grown dramatically in the last five years, but compared with the total stock of financial assets, gold bullion investment is still just a tiny proportion. Several factors are now stimulating gold investment by new pension fund money - as well as by private investors. Sales of gold jewelry across Asia are surging as the local economies boom and private investment grows. China's gold investment demand grew by 20% in 2009, while Indian consumers bought a record 900 tonnes – well over one-fifth of the total world market. Gold buyers in Asia tend to think of their jewelry as a form of gold investment. Prevented from owning gold bullion until very recently, they buy gold to protect their savings from inflation and currency shocks. That's why the most popular form of gold jewelry in Asia – heavy chains and bracelets – is known as "investment jewelry" in the gold industry.
Gold mining companies worldwide have failed to meet the growing demand from gold jewelry and gold investment buyers, pushing the gold price steadily higher. The world's No.1 gold mining nation, South Africa, has seen its annual gold output halve since 1998, and new operations in China and Russia - though growing - have failed to pick up the slack. According to consultants "Virtual Metals" total world mining output has fallen by 4% since 2003. Their gold investment analysts don't forecast an early return to growing output.
The surge in crude oil prices has closely matched the gains in gold prices since 2003, but many people now thinking about gold investment will also want to consider the surge in world food prices, the boom in base metals such as copper, and the current all-time highs in the cost of shipping. Rising demand for better housing and durable goods from Asian consumers is certainly a factor. But many gold investment analysts also point to the huge growth in credit and debt in the West. The money supply in the United States has doubled in the last seven years. In Europe, growth in the money supply hit a near-30 year record in late 2007, increasing the appeal of gold investment as the value of each Euro in circulation threatens to shrink under the weight of new notes and electronic account balances.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Why Manmohan Singh should quit as India's PM


Like a large number of Indians, I too had immense respect for Dr Manmohan Singh and felt India would really emerge under the stewardship of his vision. However this hope soon faded away as we Indians came to realize that he would just be a puppet whose reins would be elsewhere. I would not want to delve too much into this as much of bandwidth has already been spent on this.

My view as to why Dr Manmohan Singh should resign from his current position as the PM of the nation is based on the fact that having been the face of the ruling government which is opposing the Jan Lokpal Bill proposed by Anna Hazare and team, it has become a face-off between Anna and Manmohan. People have come to see it as if Manmohan Singh is not against corruption and he is supporting a corrupt government. The real corrupt politicians have taken shelter behind the PM and are using him as a shield. No where in discussion its being said that Laloo Prasad Yadav, Jayalalita, Mayawati or Sharad Pawar are opposing the Jan Lokpal Bill. When in reality they would ensure at any cost that the bill does not pass as then it would mean nailing their own coffin. On the contrary the fight has become one between two honest and respected citizens of the nation.

I think Dr Manmohan Singh should call it a day at his current role and take up role's which involve less of politics and more of intellect which he is gifted with. We need minds like his to steer the nation towards a developed economy which he cannot do under the shadow of higher power and for always being insulted as the silent PM of the nation. It feels bad to hear when people make fun of the gentleman criticizing his silence. He needs to speak up for himself and protect his dignity which he is losing protecting those people who really don't care for him.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

2008 being revisited in 2011


2008 was a year that very few people would forget in their lifetimes. You need not be linked to the capital markets to remember the events of 2008 as almost all across the Globe and across all sectors, the tremors were felt with varying intensity.

Now as we have come to the middle of 2011, the fault-lines are starting to show up again. Indian markets started the year with a strew of negative events - big ticket corruption being unearthed, high inflation, rising interest rates and high crude oil prices. Developing markets continued to outperform the emerging economies as economists went gung-ho about the growth prospects of the shattered developed economies. US was seen as the clear market leader in the global rally. Unfortunately the party on the street has become very short lived.

Unlike 2008 when it was the "Too Big to Fail" banks from the US which were at fault and collapsed, this time around in 2011 its the Sovereign Governments whose neck has been put on the line. Countries which till yesterday figured as the top tourist destinations of the developed world, became the poster boys of Sovereign defaults. These countries made it clear to the world, either the European Union (EU) bails it out or there would not be any EU tomorrow. What initially looked like a European problem, soon raised its head in none other than the mighty USA. With the Debt Limits becoming a national political issue in the US, the world could do little but watch the debt limits being raised to another astronomical figure of a few more trillion dollars!!

Now with fresh concerns of European banks falling, the markets are on tenterhooks!! People are talking of a Lehman type crisis in Europe. Growth rates are being downgraded for the developed and emerging economies and also for the World at large. Where would all this lead to? Has Lehman become the synonym for financial crisis? Before we could lick our wounds from the last crisis, we have been pushed into another one and this time around the wound seems to be quite deep. Governments are in trouble unlike the previous case when governments bailed out the banks. Fed cannot come to the rescue of the US government by running its minting machines overtime. That would be the silliest thing to do.

The problem with the current global economy and more specifically the financial sector is that greed has become the corner stone of its demise time and again. We do not seem to be learning from our past mistakes. We pumped in $700 bn in 2008 and created the current mess. Now debt limits are raised further and stakes are higher. Its no man's guess what the size of the next crisis would be.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Indian Congress digging its own grave

There is an old saying in Hindi mythology "Vinash kale vipareet buddhi" which means when one's destruction nears he is guided by wrong intelligence. This seems to be the very scenario for the ruling Indian Congress Party (UPA) and its handling of the Anti-Corruption movement led by Anna Hazare and team.

After the first wave of Lokpal Bill movement in April 2011, the ruling UPA government felt the pressure was too intense and it was needed to show to the common man its intentions of fighting corruption and hence accepted to draft the Lokpal Bill which has been lying in the corridors of the Indian Parliament for the last four decades!! Like always, the government felt that this too was a passing phase and soon the steam related to the Lokpal bill would die down and government would come out with a weaker version of the Bill to appease the citizens and pat its back for having made an anti-corruption law. However little did they realise that times have changed and we Indians are not in an era of Roti-Kapda and Makan, but a much more enlightened society. Moreover the people leading from the front in the fight for Jan Lokpal Bill are no politicians whose motives end with the gain of publicity and votes. They are respected citizens of the country who have the least aspirations to be on the political list of any party.

With the failure of the government to pass a strong Jan Lokpal Bill, and Anna Hazare's decision to take on the government a second time, I think the stage is set for the final ouster of the ruling party in the next elections if not before that. The ruling party has lost its support of the citizens which is visible from Bangalore to Delhi and Mumbai to Kolkata. They hit the final nail on their coffin by making the silly mistake of arresting Anna Hazare and his team even before they could begin their fast and peaceful rally in the capital city of Delhi. This act highlighted the fear the government has with the success of the rally. My question is why is the government hesitating and so adamant on not allowing corrupt bureaucrats being investigated by an independent body like the Lokpal? What skeletons is it hiding in its cupboards that it is so scared of any investigation?

Surprisingly ruling party ministers come on television and talk about how the Jan Lokpal Bill is not the solution to corruption problems in the country. They don't realise that we too know its not the panacea for the corruption problem, but then as of now we do not have a better alternative and neither do these so called elected ministers have an alternative other than just degrading the Jan Lokpal Bill. Below I have summarised the difference between the Jan Lokpal Bill and the Draft Bill as recommended by the government of India.


Draft Lokpal Bill (2010)Jan Lokpal Bill
Lokpal does not have powers to investigate the prime minister.Lokpal will have the powers to investigate the prime minister.
Lokpal can only probe complaints approved by the Speaker of the Lok Sabha or the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.Lokpal will have powers to initiate suo moto action or receive complaints of corruption from any citizen if it deems it worthy.
Lokpal will only be an Advisory Body with a role limited to forwarding reports to a "Competent Authority".Lokpal will have the power to initiate prosecution of anyone found guilty.
Lokpal will have no police powers and no ability to register a First Information Report (FIR) or proceed with criminal investigations.Lokpal will have police powers as well as the ability to register FIRs.
The CBI and Lokpal will be unconnected.Lokpal and the anti corruption wing of the CBI will be one independent body.
Punishment for corruption will be a minimum of 6 months and a maximum of up to 7 years.Punishments will be a minimum of 10 years and a maximum of up to life imprisonment.

I guess its just a matter of time before the ruling government realises that no one is bigger than the citizens who have elected them and whom they are ruling in a democracy. We are no dictator-run country like Eqypt, Libya or Iraq where there would be civil uprising and riots on the streets. We have a much powerful tool of non-violence patronised by The Father of our nation and we shall surely achieve our goals this time too though a little later because of the quantum of money involved and the level of people who would be under investigation once the bill comes into play.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Destination Mobile Apps



There seems to be a new industry that is seeing more entrepreneurs than anywhere else. Low start up cost, low fixed expenses, shoe-string marketing budget with marketing based on social networking sites and need for only few tech savvy minds to get the business up and running, is what is driving this new industry. This is the new generation Mobile applications industry that is seeing growth unheard since the IT boom days of the late 90’s. I would contribute the emergence of this new industry to one single company which has emerged like a phoenix from the ashes and taken its place as the largest US company surpassing the giants like Exxon. Yes I am talking of Apple Computers. The launch of iphone brought about a revolution in the world. The very meaning of smartphone changed forever and it brought about a new breed of Application developers to cater to different need based and entertainment based applications that would enhance the experience of the iphone.


We have come a long way since the days of iphone with the launch of newer versions of iphone, ipad and a host of Android based smartphone and tablets. Applications based on Blackberry and Symbian platforms are also seeing quite a lot of activity. Industry reports peg the growth of these applications in exponential terms with the industry revenues pegged at several billions of dollars till 2015.

However I have my own reservations on this aspect. It’s not unknown that when the going gets good, research companies go overboard in their estimates. This in-turn pulls in too many new players in the industry which ultimately sets the stage for the untimely demise of the same and negative publicity of the whole concept. My observation on the mobile Applications industry comes from the fact that we have lakhs of Applications on App Store and for Android phones, but only a handful of them which are actually downloaded regularly and are of any significant utility. So I am concerned about the other app developers who got lured by the huge potential in this industry but then got lost in the crowd. I agree it’s a survival of the fittest like in any other industry. If you have a killing application it would definitely make its own mark.

My other observation comes with regard to the saturation being seen in the App space. Normally any smart phone user would not install more than 10-15 applications on his device unless he has ample amount of time to dabble with the apps the whole day. Now with applications available for almost every segment, the opportunities for newer developers are getting narrower. So my advice to aspiring mobile application developers is that check the App stores to see the applications which are the most downloaded, what categories see the most hits and which ones are also at the bottom of the heap. Market is definitely large and has space for many more developers to make their mark but caution needs to be taken to not get lured by any mirage in the world of Apps!

Monday, March 21, 2011

Harvard MBA Index

Recently was reading about an index designed by a Harvard Business School alumnus which gives a "Sell", "Buy" or "Neutral" signal on the financial market. Its called the Harvard MBA Index!!
To think of it its quite rational. It basically measures the percentage of people who take up jobs in market sensitive positions in the financial sector. These include investment banking, investment management, private equity, venture capital and hedge funds. Interestingly if the percentage exceeds 30, then its a sell signal and anything below 10 is a long term buy signal!!

Surprisingly in 2008, a record 41% of the passouts went for the so called "market sensitive" jobs and we know what followed thereafter in 2008 and 2009. In 2009, accordingly around 28% went to these jobs and in 2010 the figure stands at 31%. So to think of it from 2008 onwards right through 2009 and 2010 we have been mostly in the SELL TO NEUTRAL PHASE of the market. But financial market data shows otherwise. Year 2010 saw a sharp recovery in the global indices from the Abyss of 2008 and 2009.

Currently as things stand, the jobs data shows increased traction in the financial services "market sensitive" jobs. So probably we would see a much higher percentage of Harvard MBAs taking up these "dangerous" jobs.... hope its not the beginning of the next fall. Though am quite convinced that just like too many cooks spoil the broth, so does too much analysis of any given data destroy the significance of the data point!!

Beyond the Big Bang - Evolution of the Universe


Man is an eternal seeker of answers to his different questions. But there has been one question to which have not been able to find any answer. Have been reading since childhood that Big Bang theory was the answer to the eternal question – how the universe came into existence. A google search also pops up these results. Almost every other search result gives you the big bang somewhere in its explanation. Thanks to some human geniuses like Prof. Stephen Hawkings who have proposed the big bang theory and evolution of time and energy.

But I guess one question which most scientific section don’t discuss because they have no answer to it or probably don’t know how to get logic right for it is this – What happened before the big bang?

All current theories suggest that before the big bang happened, the mass of matter of infinite density came from nowhere. How can we rest on such a lame answer to arrive at the origins of our existence? My curiosity is a very basic one – from where did matter arise. We know that there was a dense mass of matter and the forces where so intense that it exploded and the universe came into being. But then where did the matter come from which made this dense mass. What’s the source of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen etc. These and the other elements of the Mendeleev’s Periodic table (remember your high school chemistry) are composed of different configurations of protons, electrons, neutrons, positrons, etc.
But then there is no explanation from where these atomic and subatomic particles have come into being.

Life on earth took billions of years to come into its present form. Starting from microbes and then trees and then advanced creatures like humans and other mammals, we have come a long way. Is there ultimate goal towards which all this evolution is happening. One natural calamity shifts the earth’s plates and axis by a few degrees. Are all these changes part of a larger evolvement of the Universe towards some goal. Considering the expanse of the universe, it is very much likely that we are not the only living creatures in the universe. All creatures need not be human like and breathing oxygen. Maybe we are an exception to all other creatures in this universe. No one has any concrete answers to these questions and at the best we try to provide some logical and hypothetical explanation.

Another question which can’t escape the mind – WHAT IS SPACE? Space as we know it means vacuum and occurs where there is nothing. But how can there be some boundaries of space if there is nothing? The entire universe with its galaxies and particles are held within the space through gravitational forces. Then how can we say space is vacuum? There are invisible forces present within the space.

All these questions drives the mind to some crazy answers. Are we some part of someone’s laboratory experiments? Could it be that there are really heavenly creatures like God and the universe is just a small part of their playfield?